Recession – the end is in sight!

Experts predict just one more year of economic misery

AFTER experts have spent months dodging the inevitable ‘how long’ question, two respected groups of economic professionals have announced their recession prognoses – the end is in sight.

Both the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and the Ernst & Young ITEM Club have released commentaries ahead of the budget that are considerably more upbeat than any recent statements.

The CBI said any recovery would be “slow and fragile”, predicting the economy would continue to shrink this year but grow 0.2% in the second quarter of 2010.

Richard Lambert, director general of the CBI, said: “There are a few tentative signs that the steepest phase of the recession is now behind us, and that the banking packages, aggressive monetary policy and fiscal support will steady the pace of decline from here on.”

The report from the Ernst & Young ITEM Club claims that the UK’s bigger corporations now have better access to credit following the revival of the bond market in January.

Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the ITEM Club, told the BBC: “This recession is unusual in terms of the degree of monetary and financial stimulus that has been applied. That is why I believe the hopeful signs seen in recent weeks mark a turning point rather than the false dawn that appeared so cruelly in 1931.”